Business claim checklist: catching the numbers that do not add up

What to take away

Match every figure to an official table or filed disclosure.
Record units, periods, adjustments, versions, and comparisons.
Reconcile company-defined measures with standardized accounts.
Separate forecasts and market explanations from observed facts.
Check whether a revision changes the article's conclusion.

This prepublication checklist covers economic releases, earnings reports, regulatory filings, forecasts, and market moves. Use it to test the claims likely to reach the headline, chart, alert, and social post. Concepts behind the items are explained in the business and economic reporting guide.

Document control

The official release or filing was retrieved.
Publication date, time, version, and amendment status are recorded.
Tables and footnotes were checked, not only the summary.
A stable identifier, accession number, or release number is saved.
The newsroom preserved the version used.
A later correction or superseding document search was completed.

Economic numbers

Measure and producing program are named.
Level, rate, index, share, contribution, and percentage change are not confused.
Reference period and comparison period are explicit.
Month-to-month and year-over-year changes remain separate.
Nominal and inflation-adjusted values remain separate.
Seasonally adjusted and unadjusted values remain separate.
Annualized rates are labeled.
Advance, preliminary, revised, and final estimates are labeled.

The reading order for any single release, from table titles to technical notes, is covered in reading an economic release.

Economic numbers checks

Name measure and producing program
Separate level, rate, index, share, contribution, percentage change
Make reference and comparison periods explicit
Keep month-to-month and year-over-year separate
Keep nominal and inflation-adjusted separate
Keep seasonally adjusted and unadjusted separate
Label annualized rates and estimate stages
Explain material revisions to earlier periods

Company claims

The claim appears in a filed document or recorded statement.
Revenue, profit, cash flow, bookings, and market value are distinguished.
Fiscal periods match on both sides of the comparison.
Acquisitions, divestitures, currency changes, and discontinued operations are addressed when material.
Adjusted or nonstandard measures have a definition and reconciliation.
Footnotes, auditor language, risk factors, and legal proceedings were reviewed.

The SEC's detailed guide to reading Forms 10-K and 10-Q explains the roles of business descriptions, risk factors, management discussion, audited statements, notes, controls, and non-GAAP reconciliations. It also states that companies prepare the filings and that the SEC does not vouch for their accuracy. Filing status therefore does not remove the need to check the company's claims.

Company claim checks

Confirm claim in filed document or recorded statement
Distinguish revenue, profit, cash flow, bookings, market value
Match fiscal periods on both sides
Address acquisitions, divestitures, currency, discontinued operations
Define and reconcile adjusted or nonstandard measures
Review footnotes, auditor language, risk factors, legal proceedings

Forecasts and expectations

The forecast producer, publication date, and horizon are named.
Point estimate, range, and scenario are not treated as the same thing.
The consensus source and contributor count are recorded.
The article explains whether an outcome missed a forecast because the estimate changed, the forecast changed, or both.
A projection is not rewritten as a commitment.

Forecast-versus-result language borrows from the poll estimates comparison, which keeps probabilities and observed values apart.

Forecast checks

Name forecast producer, publication date, horizon
Do not treat point estimate, range, scenario as same
Record consensus source and contributor count
Explain miss due to estimate change, forecast change, or both
Do not rewrite projection as commitment

Market moves

Instrument, exchange, currency, session, and time are clear.
Percentage and point moves use the correct prior close or baseline.
Trading volume and broader index context were checked when relevant.
A causal explanation is attributed to identifiable evidence.
After-hours and regular-session prices are not blended.
One security's move is not presented as the whole economy's response.

Event disclosures

Companies use current reports for specified material events, but the filing item and attached exhibit matter. Investor.gov's explanation of how to read a Form 8-K says these reports are generally filed promptly, not waiting for a periodic report.

It describes events readers may find relevant. Check the item number, filing date, event date, and exhibits before summarizing what changed.

Household and local effect

National averages are not assigned to every household.
Interviews illustrate an effect without proving its prevalence.
Regional, industry, income, age, or demographic breakdowns come from suitable data.
A price change is not treated as a quantity change.
The mechanism connecting the indicator to the person is explained.

Which indicator can support which household claim is the subject of the economic indicators comparison.

Headline and correction check

The headline uses the same period and measure as the body.
"Record" has a defined start date and inflation basis.
"Unexpected" names the forecast or prior expectation.
"Markets" is replaced with the actual instrument when needed.
The desk has an owner and date for the next release or filing.
A material correction will reach alerts and syndicated copies.

Common questions

Does an SEC filing confirm that a company's statement is true?

No. A filing creates legal disclosure obligations and a public record, but the company prepares it. Reporters must still read the evidence and qualifications.

Can adjusted earnings lead a story?

Yes, if the definition, reconciliation, comparable standardized measure, and reason for using it are clear.

What counts as a material revision?

A revision is material to coverage when it changes magnitude, direction, trend, comparison, or the explanation readers received.

Is a consensus forecast an official benchmark?

No. It summarizes selected forecasts under the provider's method. Identify that source and do not confuse a surprise against expectations with an error in the official estimate.